{"id":2259,"date":"2025-11-01T23:32:37","date_gmt":"2025-11-01T23:32:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/theinformantusa.com\/?p=2259"},"modified":"2025-11-01T23:32:37","modified_gmt":"2025-11-01T23:32:37","slug":"jd-vance-emerges-as-early-favorite-for-2028-u-s-election-on-kalshi-prediction-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/theinformantusa.com\/?p=2259","title":{"rendered":"JD VANCE EMERGES AS EARLY FAVORITE FOR 2028 U.S. ELECTION ON KALSHI PREDICTION MARKET"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>According to data from <strong>Kalshi<\/strong>, a <strong>CFTC-regulated prediction market<\/strong> where users trade contracts on real-world events, <strong>Sen. JD Vance (R\u2013Ohio)<\/strong> currently holds a <strong>30% implied probability<\/strong> of winning the <strong>2028 U.S. presidential election<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The market reflects traders\u2019 consensus expectations based on real-money wagers, giving Vance the lead over <strong>California Governor Gavin Newsom (22%)<\/strong> and <strong>President Donald Trump (8%)<\/strong>, assuming Trump completes his current term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kalshi\u2019s data suggests Vance has gained momentum as a rising conservative figure with strong ties to the Trump administration, appealing to both populist and traditional Republican bases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Prediction markets like Kalshi are increasingly seen as <strong>alternative barometers for political sentiment<\/strong>, often reflecting crowd wisdom and investor confidence ahead of polls or conventional forecasting models.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>According to data from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market where users trade contracts on real-world events, Sen. JD Vance (R\u2013Ohio) currently holds a 30% implied probability of winning the 2028 U.S. presidential election. The market reflects traders\u2019 consensus expectations based on real-money wagers, giving Vance the lead over California Governor Gavin Newsom (22%) and President [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2260,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[169,170],"class_list":["post-2259","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-u-s","tag-jd-vance","tag-president"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>JD VANCE EMERGES AS EARLY FAVORITE FOR 2028 U.S. ELECTION ON KALSHI PREDICTION MARKET - The Informant USA<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/theinformantusa.com\/?p=2259\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"JD VANCE EMERGES AS EARLY FAVORITE FOR 2028 U.S. ELECTION ON KALSHI PREDICTION MARKET - The Informant USA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"According to data from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market where users trade contracts on real-world events, Sen. JD Vance (R\u2013Ohio) currently holds a 30% implied probability of winning the 2028 U.S. presidential election. 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