According to data from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market where users trade contracts on real-world events, Sen. JD Vance (R–Ohio) currently holds a 30% implied probability of winning the 2028 U.S. presidential election.
The market reflects traders’ consensus expectations based on real-money wagers, giving Vance the lead over California Governor Gavin Newsom (22%) and President Donald Trump (8%), assuming Trump completes his current term.
Kalshi’s data suggests Vance has gained momentum as a rising conservative figure with strong ties to the Trump administration, appealing to both populist and traditional Republican bases.
Prediction markets like Kalshi are increasingly seen as alternative barometers for political sentiment, often reflecting crowd wisdom and investor confidence ahead of polls or conventional forecasting models.
