Rising crude stockpiles in the U.S. and new forecasts from OPEC and the IEA point to a growing global surplus through 2026.
Global oil prices fell for a second straight session on Thursday after new data showed rising U.S. crude inventories, intensifying concerns over a looming worldwide supply glut.
Brent crude slipped 20 cents to $62.51 per barrel, extending Wednesday’s 3.8% drop, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 24 cents to $58.25, after a 4.2% decline the previous day.
The downward pressure came after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 1.3 million-barrel increase in U.S. crude stockpiles for the week ending November 7. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected to release its official inventory report later Thursday.
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that crude inventories are rising across key global hubs:
“We have seen a build in oil inventories across Europe, Singapore, Fujairah, and the United States based on preliminary data last week.”
Prices also tumbled on Wednesday after OPEC projected that oil supplies will exceed global demand in 2026, marking a shift from its earlier more optimistic forecasts.
DBS Bank energy analyst Suvro Sarkar said the revision reflects OPEC’s acknowledgment of a possible surplus:
“Recent weakness seems driven by OPEC’s revision of the 2026 supply–demand balance, confirming the group is now acknowledging the possibility of a supply glut.”
OPEC attributed the expected surplus to wider production increases from OPEC+, the coalition that includes Russia.
Adding to the bearish outlook, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its oil supply growth estimates for both 2025 and 2026, signaling an even larger surplus next year.
Meanwhile, the U.S. EIA said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook that American oil production is set to hit a higher record than previously forecast—further boosting global supply at a time when demand growth is slowing.
Despite the bearish indicators, some analysts believe oil prices will find a floor near current levels.
“There should be considerable support around $60 a barrel, especially with potential short-term disruptions to Russian exports once stricter sanctions kick in,” said DBS’s Sarkar.
