CRYPTO PREDICTION MARKET GOES VIRAL AFTER CONTROVERSIAL BETTING POST
NEW YORK — November 12, 2025. Crypto prediction platform Polymarket ignited controversy this week after posting that the odds of New York Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani being deported from the United States this year had “doubled”, prompting backlash over ethics and online speculation.
The post, which went viral on X (formerly Twitter) with more than 480,000 views, linked to a live betting market titled “Will Zohran Mamdani be deported this year?” allowing users to wager cryptocurrency on the outcome.
Polymarket’s post quickly sparked criticism from political analysts and civil-rights advocates who condemned the idea of gambling on a sitting U.S. legislator’s immigration status. “It’s tasteless, dangerous, and borders on harassment,” said a digital-ethics researcher from Columbia University.
The platform, based in New York but operating under offshore registration, is known for letting users speculate on real-world events — from election outcomes to global conflicts — using blockchain-based smart contracts. It has been fined in the past by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for offering unregistered prediction markets.
The market around Mamdani appeared shortly after a wave of misinformation regarding his immigration background circulated on social media, despite there being no public record of any deportation proceedings. Mamdani, born in Kampala, Uganda, and raised in New York, has served in the New York State Assembly since 2021 and is a well-known progressive voice.
Legal experts say the Polymarket listing may fall into a gray area of online defamation, particularly if it fuels false narratives. “If an event market enables the spread of verifiably false claims about a public figure, the platform can face legal exposure,” said a First Amendment attorney in Manhattan.
As of late Monday, the market remained active, with trading odds fluctuating between 10 % and 22 %, even though no deportation proceedings exist. Polymarket did not immediately respond to requests for comment from The Informant USA.
Mamdani’s office has not issued a formal statement, but staffers told local media they were aware of the post and “disappointed by the reckless amplification of misinformation.”
The incident highlights how decentralized platforms and blockchain speculation can blur the line between political commentary and targeted misinformation — and raises questions about oversight in the era of crypto-based prediction markets.
